Gastvortrag im Rahmen des Osnabrücker Geographischen Kolloquiums

"Assessing Societal Impacts and Capturing Adaptation Dynamics in Drought Disaster Risk Models", by Ass. Prof. Dr. Marthe Wens,| Ass. Prof. in Water Security & Drought Impacts, VU Amsterdam

In this talk, Marthe Wens will elaborate on two of the data-driven drought risk analysis approaches we apply at IVM. The first one uses machine learning techniques to quantify the likelihood of experience certain drought-induced losses in productivity/health. Rather than a factor-based approach, we start from an impact perspective and define the hydro-meteorological conditions leading to the observed societal impacts. This probabilistic analysis is done on regional scales for different vulnerability clusters. It allows for the estimation of risk metrics for disaster profiles, identifying hotspots and informing risk reduction goals, and can thus feed directly into policies.
The second one uses agent-based techniques to understand the interaction between human adaptation decisions and drought risk. Rather than a purely hydrologic approach, we start from a 'people' perspective and model heterogeneous adaptive behaviour in response to observed impact and top-down governance. This path-dependent analysis is done on local scales for different communities. It allows for the estimation of the effect of risk reduction policies, identifying leverages and barriers for adaptation, and, when translated, can feed into policies.

Moderation: Britta Höllermann